marketprice.2026-09-25 14:28 UTC · live, refreshes every minute

by asset class sam against the baselines

crypto

sam
49.7% · 0.2525
persistence
51.2% · 0.4879
always up
49.8% · 0.5023
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

2,433 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 49.8% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

metals (gold)

sam
42.5% · 0.2559
persistence
58.1% · 0.4185
always up
36.7% · 0.6333
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

2,915 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 36.7% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

forex

sam
50.6% · 0.2498
persistence
46.7% · 0.5331
always up
47.3% · 0.5267
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

5,817 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 47.3% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

stocks

sam
50.2% · 0.2514
persistence
51.2% · 0.4882
always up
50.2% · 0.4983
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

4,140 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 50.2% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

by market

BTC-USD

sam
49.7% · 0.2530
vendor model
49.6% · 0.2860
persistence
51.2% · 0.4879
always up
49.8% · 0.5023
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

2,433 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 49.8% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

ETH-USD

sam
50.6% · 0.2519
persistence
50.5% · 0.4947
always up
49.1% · 0.5086
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

1,221 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 49.1% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

SOL-USD

sam
49.0% · 0.2522
persistence
48.4% · 0.5160
always up
49.9% · 0.5006
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

1,622 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 49.9% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

EURUSD

sam
50.1% · 0.2500
persistence
48.1% · 0.5194
always up
47.4% · 0.5256
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

2,907 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 47.4% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

GBPUSD

sam
51.2% · 0.2496
persistence
45.3% · 0.5467
always up
47.2% · 0.5278
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

2,910 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 47.2% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

PAXGUSD

sam
42.5% · 0.2559
persistence
58.1% · 0.4185
always up
36.7% · 0.6333
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

2,915 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 36.7% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

AAPL

sam
50.7% · 0.2531
persistence
48.0% · 0.5202
always up
49.6% · 0.5040
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

619 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 49.6% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

MSFT

sam
48.9% · 0.2547
persistence
50.9% · 0.4909
always up
52.7% · 0.4727
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

605 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 52.7% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

NVDA

sam
51.4% · 0.2497
persistence
52.3% · 0.4769
always up
48.6% · 0.5136
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

627 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 48.6% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

AMZN

sam
49.1% · 0.2499
persistence
50.6% · 0.4938
always up
48.4% · 0.5155
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

322 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 48.4% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

META

sam
48.6% · 0.2537
persistence
52.9% · 0.4709
always up
53.2% · 0.4679
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

327 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 53.2% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

TSLA

sam
48.2% · 0.2505
persistence
54.3% · 0.4573
always up
46.6% · 0.5335
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

328 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 46.6% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

GOOGL

sam
57.3% · 0.2462
persistence
50.0% · 0.5000
always up
52.7% · 0.4726
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

328 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 52.7% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

SPY

sam
46.9% · 0.2521
persistence
52.7% · 0.4731
always up
48.7% · 0.5131
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

651 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 48.7% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

QQQ

sam
53.2% · 0.2495
persistence
49.5% · 0.5045
always up
52.0% · 0.4805
coin flip
50% · 0.2500

333 settled minutes · up-minute base rate 52.0% · accuracy · brier (lower is better)

BTC-USD · the last thirty minutes sam and a vendor decision model side by side

minute (UTC)closesamvendor modelnext close
14:2683649.15down 51% n/adown 69% n/a
14:2583653.11down 51% ✓down 58% ✓83649.15
14:2483598.43down 51% ✗down 68% ✗83653.11
14:2183718.38down 51% ✓down 69% ✓83711.86
14:2083634.50down 51% ✗down 61% ✗83718.38
14:1983623.96down 51% ✗down 61% ✗83634.50
14:1883548.69down 51% ✗down 62% ✗83623.96
14:1783465.04down 51% ✗down 85% ✗83548.69
14:1683546.43down 51% ✓down 85% ✓83465.04
14:1583634.75down 51% ✓down 79% ✓83546.43
14:1483561.00down 51% ✗down 77% ✗83634.75
14:1383594.24down 51% ✓down 77% ✓83561.00
14:1283590.91down 51% ✗down 78% ✗83594.24
14:1183604.01down 51% ✓down 76% ✓83590.91
14:1083439.07down 51% ✗down 69% ✗83604.01
14:0983437.07down 51% ✗down 66% ✗83439.07
14:0883473.46down 51% ✓down 59% ✓83437.07
14:0783350.15down 51% ✗down 65% ✗83473.46
14:0683273.51down 51% ✗down 54% ✗83350.15
14:0583188.46up 54% ✓down 61% ✗83273.51
14:0483233.53down 51% ✓up 56% ✗83188.46
14:0383504.09down 51% ✓down 59% ✓83233.53
14:0283711.15down 51% ✓down 56% ✓83504.09
14:0183938.19down 51% ✓down 71% ✓83711.15
14:0083948.07down 50% ✓down 75% ✓83938.19
13:5983908.98down 51% ✗down 78% ✗83948.07
13:5883904.70down 51% ✗down 62% ✗83908.98
13:5783912.44down 51% ✓down 64% ✓83904.70
13:5683949.70down 51% ✓down 62% ✓83912.44
13:5584052.32down 51% ✓up 50% ✗83949.70
spent on the vendor model so far $0.0772

how to read this

accuracy is the share of minutes the call was right. the brier score is the mean squared distance between the probability given and what happened: it punishes confident wrong answers and rewards honest uncertainty; a coin flip scores 0.25. two baselines are scored on the same minutes: persistence (the next minute goes the way the last one went) and always up. a model has to beat all three to have said anything. sam is trained only on real outcomes, one model per asset class, and retrained every six hours; a market whose session is closed gets no call, and a prediction whose next minute never came is void and never scored.